The Age
Structured Projection Model (AGEPRO)
is an age-structured projection model. It was designed to
evaluate the likely population consequences of complex harvest
scenarios under alternative hypotheses about the stock-recruitment
relationship. Uncertainty in initial population size at age
is incorporated into the model.
AGEPRO
interfaces directly with VPA/ADAPT.
It can use bootstrapped
estimates of population size or fishing mortality rates derived from
any age-structured model. AGEPRO uses Monte Carlo
simulation to evaluate probabilities of achieving targets for fishing
mortality or stock size and the expected age structure of landings and
the population.
The calculation engine is written in FORTRAN by Dr. Jon
Brodziak of NMFS Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center with
contributions
by Dr. Paul Rago, NMFS NEFSC and others. The calculation
engine and graphical interface have been
entirely rewritten as discrete modules.
Compatibility Notes
Users must re-run older versions of the VPA model to create
bootstrap files
compatible with this version of AGEPRO.
AGEPRO input files used with FACT will be converted to the new
input format. Bootstrap files from FACT are not
compatible with this version of AGEPRO.
Brodziak, J. and P. Rago. Unpublished
manuscript 1994. A general approach for short-term stochastic
projections in age-structured fisheries assessment models. Population
Dynamics Branch. Northeast Fisheries Science Center. Woods Hole,
Massachusetts, 02543.
Brodziak, J., P. Rago, and R. Conser.
1998. A general approach for making short-term stochastic projections
from an age-structured fisheries assessment model. In F. Funk, T. Quinn
II, J. Heifetz, J. Ianelli, J. Powers, J. Schweigert, P. Sullivan, and
C.-I. Zhang (Eds.), Proceedings of the International Symposium on
Fishery Stock Assessment Models for the 21st Century. Alaska Sea Grant
College Program, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks.
AGEPRO Version
3.3.3(May 27, 2009) - This version
fixes a GUI bug in extracting data from the output report when the user
has not requested threshold probabilities.
AGEPRO Version
3.3.2(April 8, 2009) - This is
a Visual Studio 2008 update of the AGEPRO GUI. Also Jon Brodziak has
made a major change to the calculation engine:There are now 19 Recruitment relationships available, includes four new
recruitment prediction models that allow the user to
use up to three covariates for predicting recruitment.
The new recruitment models are:
*
Linear recruits per spawning biomass predictor with normal error
*
Loglinear recruits per spawning biomass predictor with lognormal error
*
Linear recruitment predictor with normal error
*
Loglinear recruitment predictor with lognormal error
AgePro Includes a model-averaging feature that allows two or more models
to be
used to predict recruitment in any year. Model probabililities are used to
specify the sampling frequency of selected recruitment models in each year.
The recruitment models are randomly selected for each simulation in the
projection according to the specified model probabilities. The
model-averaging
feature allows one to account for model selection uncertainty in the
recruitment
predictions. Model-averaging also provides the option of combining one
or more
environmental covariates to predict recruitment in the short term (1-2 yrs)
along with one or more models for medium term projections (3-5 yrs)
AGEPRO Version
3.2.2(September 2008)
AGEPRO Version 3.1.3
(January 2006)
The
graphical interface has been substantially revised for version 3.1.
User
may now specify minimum and maximum values for fishing
mortality over the projection horizon.
User
may now specify
all weights at age as time varying.
Age
Structured Projection
Model