Age Structured Projection Model
(AGEPRO)

About

Version 3.3.8 (July 2009)

Core Application

The Age Structured Projection Model (AGEPRO) is an age-structured projection model. It was designed to evaluate the likely population consequences of complex harvest scenarios under alternative hypotheses about the stock-recruitment relationship. Uncertainty in initial population size at age is incorporated into the model.

AGEPRO interfaces directly with VPA/ADAPT. It can use bootstrapped estimates of population size or fishing mortality rates derived from any age-structured model. AGEPRO uses Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate probabilities of achieving targets for fishing mortality or stock size and the expected age structure of landings and the population.

The calculation engine is written in FORTRAN by Dr. Jon Brodziak of NMFS Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center with contributions by Dr. Paul Rago, NMFS NEFSC and others. The calculation engine and graphical interface have been entirely rewritten as discrete modules.

Compatibility Notes

Users must re-run older versions of the VPA model to create bootstrap files compatible with this version of AGEPRO.

AGEPRO input files used with FACT will be converted to the new input format. Bootstrap files from FACT are not compatible with this version of AGEPRO.

References

Brodziak, J. and P. Rago. Unpublished manuscript 1994. A general approach for short-term stochastic projections in age-structured fisheries assessment models. Population Dynamics Branch. Northeast Fisheries Science Center. Woods Hole, Massachusetts, 02543.

Brodziak, J., P. Rago, and R. Conser. 1998. A general approach for making short-term stochastic projections from an age-structured fisheries assessment model. In F. Funk, T. Quinn II, J. Heifetz, J. Ianelli, J. Powers, J. Schweigert, P. Sullivan, and C.-I. Zhang (Eds.), Proceedings of the International Symposium on Fishery Stock Assessment Models for the 21st Century. Alaska Sea Grant College Program, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks.

Version History

AGEPRO Version 3.3.3 (May 27, 2009) - This version fixes a GUI bug in extracting data from the output report when the user has not requested threshold probabilities.

AGEPRO Version 3.3.2  (April 8, 2009) - This is a Visual Studio 2008 update of the AGEPRO GUI. Also Jon Brodziak has made a major change to the calculation engine: There are now 19 Recruitment relationships available, includes four new recruitment prediction models that allow the user to
use up to three covariates for predicting recruitment.

The new recruitment models are:
   *      Linear recruits per spawning biomass predictor with normal error
   *      Loglinear recruits per spawning biomass predictor with lognormal error
   *      Linear recruitment predictor with normal error
   *      Loglinear recruitment predictor with lognormal error

AgePro Includes a model-averaging feature that allows two or more models to be
used to predict recruitment in any year. Model probabililities are used to
specify the sampling frequency of selected recruitment models in each year.
The recruitment models are randomly selected for each simulation in the
projection according to the specified model probabilities. The model-averaging
feature allows one to account for model selection uncertainty in the recruitment
predictions. Model-averaging also provides the option of combining one or more
environmental covariates to predict recruitment in the short term (1-2 yrs)
along with one or more models for medium term projections (3-5 yrs)

AGEPRO Version 3.2.2 (September 2008)

AGEPRO Version 3.1.3 (January 2006)

The graphical interface has been substantially revised for version 3.1.
User may now specify minimum and maximum values for fishing mortality over the projection horizon.
User may now specify all weights at age as time varying.

Older Version Changes

For older changes please see the AGEPRO documentation, or contact User Support.

NOAA Fisheries Toolbox Version 3.1

website last modified November 13, 2009